"The desire to know what the future holds is as old as mankind itself."
Ute von Reibnitz
Scenario Planning
In order to negotiate the questions about tomorrow in a accessible and comprehensive way, a basic understanding and a method is needed - scenario planning. This method is an important part of our approach, and underlies the design of our future experiments.
Quantitative data sets are often insufficient
In conventional forecasts of the future, quantitative factors are recorded and a forecast is made from these. Factors that cannot be measured are not included in the forecast. However, developments such as digitalisation are so complex and far-reaching that they cannot be predicted on the basis of quantitative data alone. Other external influences, such as the corona virus pandemic for example, cannot be taken into account by statistical forecasting methods. But such disruptions can completely change society within a short time. Conventional forecasting methods therefore often walk backwards into the future.
Back from the future
In scenario planning, a cut is deliberately made between the past and the future then working backwards. A desirable scenario is defined in the future and then steps are planned from there back to the present. In the end, not only a desirable scenario is created, but also recommendations on how to get there.
Workflow of scenario planning
Scenario planning consists of 5 to 12 steps. They are shown here:
1. Problem analysis and business environment
The first step is to define and structure the field of analysis as well as to describe the actual situation. What is the problem and what affects it? What are possible influencing factors that will affect the field of interest in the future? This way it is also possible to define what is and what is not the subject of the analysis.
As an example: How will digitalisation in the private environment develop? (field of interest). Influencing factors could be: 5G radio standard, data protection, home office...
2. Drawing projections and assumptions
In this step, based on the influencing factors, projections and assumptions are developed for the targeted year. These are sorted, bundled and weighted on an axis between dystopia and utopia.
As an example: The 5G radio standard (influencing factor) will completely wipe out the home internet market (assumption).
3. Scenario development and interpretation
Various utopian, desirable as well as dystopian projections and assumptions are now woven into holistic desirable "future scenarios". Stories, daily routines or collages of different futures are created. The different scenarios are again placed on the axis between dystopia and utopia in a participative and deliberative process.
4. Formulating the conditions for success
The last phase serves to create the conditions for success, which serve to make the desired development of the scenarios negotiable. Possible steps are defined that can be used to bring a scenario to reality. In this way, scenario planning not only enables creative thinking about alternative futures, but also provides recommendations for action that pave the way to them.
Scenario planning in use
Economy
In a one-day workshop with the "Greater Zurich Area" we used scenario planning to negotiate the future of location marketing and business development. We developed projections, scenarios and conditions for success over the next 20 years. As preliminary work, the GZA has already prepared the problem and business environment analysis and the influencing factors.
Digital democracy
On behalf of the Stiftung für Technologiefolgen - Abschätzung (Foundation for Technology Assessment), the Dezentrum develops scenarios of a digital democracy. In this context, the individual steps outlined above are all carried out several times and as full-day workshops.
Future of work & education
During the online workshops of the DigitalLabor, projections and future scenarios for the future of work and education were developed in two hours.
Infrastructure & digital space of the future
In a digital workshop with CooperativeSuisse, the Dezentrum collected projections with experts and participants to develop scenarios on the question of who owns digital space and what the future of digital public infrastructure and space might look like.
Run a scenario workshop
Would you like to conduct a scenario workshop with your company? We organize scenario workshops both off- and online.
Do you want to learn more about scenario planning? Then we would be happy to train you in its application.
Contact
Mirko Fischli
mirko.fischli@dezentrum.ch
Scenario planning consists of several elements from our future experiments methodology.